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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Afghan Conference Won't Bring Unity
November 26, 2001
Summary
Afghan diplomats are meeting in Germany for discussions on a future post-Taliban government. But the most powerful Afghan factions are placing little value on the conference, with some leaders not even attending. This reinforces the expectation that Afghanistan will descend into low-level violence, and the question then will become how long the U.S. military will be able to operate in the country.
Analysis
Rival Afghan factions gathered Nov. 25 in Bonn, Germany, to prepare for U.N.-sponsored talks on a future government for post-war Afghanistan. The conference, to begin Nov. 27, may lead to the establishment of a grand council of tribal chiefs to decide on a broad-based Afghan government, encompassing all of the country's diverse ethnic strands.
Little can be expected from the Bonn meeting, as Afghanistan has too many interested parties with too many disparate agendas. Some sort of settlement will eventually be made, but it will only be a matter of time until Afghanistan devolves into its historic state of low-level chaos. The challenge for the United States is to keep the country from falling apart until it finds Osama bin Laden and dismembers the Taliban.
The United Nations is facing a massive task with its conference, due to Afghanistan's complex ethnic makeup. More than 35 different languages are spoken in the country, and at least 13 anti-Taliban parties vie for control.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Afghan Conference Won't Bring Unity . . .