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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Al Qaeda's Search for a New Sanctuary
November 27, 2001
Summary
With Afghanistan turning into a less-inviting refuge for al Qaeda, the group must focus on other possible places for sanctuary, such as Iraq, Somalia and Yemen. Its long-term fate depends on finding another base to conduct operations. Conversely, the United States must ensure that al Qaeda is not successful in finding such a place.
Analysis
It is unreasonable to say operations are moving to a conclusion in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is an eternal, ongoing operation, one that will never end. However, it is fair to say the shape of U.S. strategy in the country has become fairly clear and effective within its self-defined limits.
The major payoff of this strategy is that, from the beginning, it has disrupted the ability of al Qaeda's command and control organization in Afghanistan to function effectively. Under extreme pressure, the group could barely coordinate its own internal activities, let alone control the international apparatus.
The American goal was narrowly focused on the primary mission of destroying al Qaeda. The internal affairs of Afghanistan were not and will not be of fundamental interest to the United States. Washington has clearly signaled it is prepared to allow Afghan politics to run its course. The United States does not care what the government of Afghanistan looks like so long as it doesn't offer refuge to al Qaeda.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Al Qaeda's Search for a New Sanctuary . . .