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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Iraq, Terrorism and Geopolitics
November 4, 2001
Summary
It is no secret that a debate is continuing within the Bush administration over whether to expand the anti-terror campaign from Afghanistan to Iraq. Those advocating an attack on Baghdad were defeated during the first round of planning, but they are renewing their arguments following the recent Taliban withdrawals. They are also trying to combine an Iraqi strategy with the model seen in Afghanistan.
Analysis
Ever since the earliest planning for the response to Sept. 11, the Iraq question has divided American strategic planners. On one side, elements within the U.S. Defense Department, publicly led by Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, have advocated a strategy that could be called "the parallel solution." This plan argued that the Afghan campaign had to be embedded within a broader strategy against not only al Qaeda but also against all states that had cooperated with the group, chief among these Iraq.
The parallel solution argued that unless all sanctuary for al Qaeda were liquidated at the same time, the command structure would likely migrate from haven to haven. Any U.S. success in Afghanistan then would not translate into the destruction of al Qaeda.
The other side was led by U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, who argued for a "serial solution." Powell's primary concern was that a broad, simultaneous attack on multiple Islamic countries would produce two unacceptable results.
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(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Iraq, Terrorism and Geopolitics . . .