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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Fog, Uncertainty and Coalition Warfare
December 12, 2001
Summary
As the United States turns its attention away from Afghanistan and toward other potential al Qaeda bases, the war on terrorism will enter its most difficult phase. The fog of war will obscure goals and cause confusion over how each side is progressing. Both the United States and al Qaeda will use that ambiguity for their own ends while attempting to peer through the haze at the other, but the need to deal in a probabilistic universe will undoubtedly strain the anti-terrorism coalition.
Next Line & Photo Topic
Analysis
The current phase of the war in Afghanistan is drawing to a close, and with it the first phase of the war against al Qaeda.
In Afghanistan, the Taliban has been driven from the cities and from power, but it has not been annihilated. Al Qaeda's operations have been dramatically contained, in the sense that it is inconceivable that al Qaeda command and control functions can still be carried out from inside Afghanistan. A great deal of personnel and infrastructure have been lost.
However, it is not yet clear that the command capabilities of al Qaeda have been destroyed. Indeed, it is not clear whether those capabilities remain in Afghanistan or have migrated to another country. If they have been annihilated in Afghanistan, there is reasonable concern that al Qaeda can generate a new command and control structure from senior and mid-level operatives who were not located in Afghanistan when the war began.
The ambiguity of the outcome was built into U.S. strategy. The United States depended on Afghan forces to drive the Taliban from power, but it also understood that did not necessarily mean the end of the Taliban. The complex system of shifting alliances that is Afghanistan means that the Taliban regime, its successor organizations or its individual members will be of value to one warlord or another. Moreover, since the Taliban also has roots in Pakistan, elements could survive there. In any case, the United States was interested in the Taliban only to the extent to which it enabled al Qaeda's international operations. Beyond that, Washington is content to leave the Taliban question to the Afghans and Pakistanis.
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(Story Source)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
I think the last line of the piece says it all:
“The Bush administration has repeatedly made the point that the war is not only far from over, but also that the hardest parts are yet to come. We agree.”
Dan
Fog, Uncertainty and Coalition Warfare . . .