The fighting is focusing down to just a pocket of areas.
The specualtion and disinformation that ObL has fled are unlikely.
The notable strategic failure throughout this war, the incredible stupidity and historically unusual move of the Taliban/ObL to not fight from their strength as guerillas is teling.
It shows that strategy has never been in the hands of truly experienced Afghans but rather has been in the hands of people fighting for something other than rational reasons.
ObL is that reason.
His charisma, like Hitler's, gives followers the false sense that his strategies are invincible, simply because his bullshit is so good.
I think the fool is holed up in a cave, maybe already wounded and still waiting for Allah to strike down the infidels.
Reality is literally crashing down on his holdout group, but I think the widely disparate backgrounds of his followers makes the group less than completely homogeneous in the inevitable group suicide phase that is building up.
I think it is likely that someone will snap and betray him, delivering his corpse along with a bill for $25million by tomorrow.
Ed