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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it's in the news, it's too late...
Afghanistan: Peace Elusive for New Government
November 19, 2001
Summary
Infighting among anti-Taliban forces remains a significant problem for the interim Afghan government. Warfare is a convenient alternative to politics for many factional leaders. STRATFOR believes this trend will continue compelling many European governments and the United States to distance themselves from Afghan politics.
Hamid Karzai is a highly influential figure and potentially commands the loyalty of large numbers of Afghans. He is a powerful Pashtun tribal leader from the Taleban's political stronghold of Kandahar and a member of the same clan as the former Afghan king, Zahir Shah
Photo Credit: Afghan-Info.com
Analysis
Afghanistan's interim leader, Hamid Karzai, apparently fearing that feuding warlords could again vie for control of the country, has warned rival anti-Taliban factions to submit to the authority of a central government. "We have a ministry of defense, and all forces in Afghanistan must eventually be under the ministry of defense," Karzai said at a Dec. 18 press conference.
Karzai has reason to be concerned. Afghanistan is still rife with competing factions and warlords. They use politics as the first recourse for many problems, but when the political process bogs down, warfare is an all-too-easy alternative. Factional fighting remains a significant problem and will likely get worse.
Continued violence in Afghanistan will chase out European peacekeepers and force the United States to abandon many of its efforts to influence the political process as it focuses on pursuing al Qaeda fighters. However, other nations will retain an active hand. Those include Turkey and Uzbekistan -- which will continue to aid warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum in carving out a fiefdom in the Uzbek-dominated northwest -- and Russia, which backs Tajik factions that dominate the interim government.
But India's influence may be the most significant. A great deal of diplomatic contact between India and Afghanistan's Tajik-dominated interim government is already occurring -- a sign that India wishes to pressure its enemy Pakistan by keeping non-Pushtuns in power in Afghanistan as long as possible.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Afghanistan: Peace Elusive for New Government . . .