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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it’s in the news, it’s too late...
The Pakistani Crisis
November 20, 2001
Summary
With the Taliban withdrawal, the focus is shifting to countries that could next face U.S. military attention, such as Somalia or Iraq. However, if Washington really wants to break the al Qaeda network, it must deal with Pakistan first. It will become increasingly difficult for the United States to avoid taking some action in at least parts of that country.
Map Credit: Stratfor.com.
Analysis
The mood in Washington is one of subdued satisfaction. The war in Afghanistan has been concluded, with the primary strategic objective achieved: the country can no longer be used as a base of operations for al Qaeda.
Secondary strategic objectives, though, have not been attained. The bulk of Taliban fighters have not been killed or captured, and it will not be clear until after winter whether their cohesion has been permanently shattered. The senior commanders of the Taliban have also not been liquidated. Above all, al Qaeda's leadership, particularly Osama bin Laden, still appears to be on the loose.
However, in any war in which the primary objective is achieved with little cost in lives, there is ample reason for satisfaction. However, there is another sense in Washington that events in Afghanistan have clearly given the United States strategic initiative, and that therefore the next move is up to the Bush administration.
There is a spirited debate underway among policymakers at all levels as to what such a move ought to be. Some argue that the United States should now attack Iraq, while others want to deal with Somalia or Yemen.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
The Pakistani Crisis . . .