<
--------------
STRATFOR.com
--------------
THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it’s in the news, it’s too late...
Spy Ship Sinking Draws Muted Response
January 3, 2002
Summary
The sinking of a suspected North Korean spy ship by Japanese vessels Dec. 22 has accelerated the debate in Japan about the role of the country's defense forces. North Korea denied any involvement and condemned Tokyo's action while China and South Korea had more subdued reactions. Beijing and Seoul may be willing to overlook Japan's efforts to remilitarize as long as Tokyo refrains from proving conclusively that the ship is North Korean -- because if it does, the fallout would destabilize Northeast Asia.
Analysis
A suspected North Korean spy ship sank in waters within China's Exclusive Economic Zone Dec. 22, following a six-hour chase by vessels and aircraft of the Japanese Coast Guard and Maritime Self Defense Force. It remains unclear whether the alleged spy ship, which was originally spotted within Japan's EEZ, was scuttled or sank due to damage sustained in a firefight with Japanese ships. The incident was similar to an alleged North Korean incursion into Japanese waters that took place in March 1999.
The incident has kindled the debate inside Japan and among its neighbors over the future role of the Japanese military. North Korea belatedly responded by calling Japan's pursuit and sinking of the ship an act of piracy and terrorism, but China and South Korea have taken a more subdued tone. Both countries are concerned about Tokyo proving that the ship was North Korean -- because in doing so, it would destabilize the precarious balance of relations in Northeast Asia. Japan, for its part, will exploit this fear to further its goal of restructuring its military.
If the boat is shown to be a North Korean spy vessel, it would require a diplomatic, economic and perhaps even military response from Japan. The United States, China and South Korea would be drawn into the conflict. This would destroy South Korea's attempt to reconcile with the North and set of alarms in Beijing.
Pyongyang's already tense relations with Tokyo have plummeted in recent months, with Japan raiding the offices of pro-North Korean financial organizations and Pyongyang canceling the search for "missing" Japanese -- those believed kidnapped in the 1970s and 1980s -- in North Korea. At the same time, Washington has sent less-than-subtle hints to North Korea that it is declaring open season on all potential terrorist and rogue nations following the Sept. 11 attacks.
+++++++ NOTICE +++++++
This is an abbreviated version of a full-length STRATFOR report previously seen by our Members. To access STRATFOR's complete range of in-depth, objective intelligence and analysis on the globe, including our award-winning daily full text and graphics reports, click here and become a Member today!
->OR<-
Sign up here to receive our free daily briefing of important international events!
+++++++ NOTICE +++++++
(Story Source)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Spy Ship Sinking Draws Muted Response . . .