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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Geopolitical Agenda Turned on Its Head
January 3, 2002
Summary
After nearly a decade of post-Cold War interventionism and the politics of human rights, things are changing in Washington. The Sept. 11 attacks have flipped U.S. geopolitical thinking on its ear, opening opportunities for second- and third-tier powers to exploit the anti-terrorism campaign. They now will be able to pursue their own local and regional interests -- with Washington's blessings.
Analysis
The United States has garnered the support of many expected -- and unexpected -- allies in its self-proclaimed war on terrorism. Britain is leading the peacekeeping forces in Afghanistan, Germany and Japan are both making their largest overseas deployments since the end of World War II, and former rogues like Sudan are offering intelligence and support to the U.S.-led campaign.
These contributions, however, are more than a show of solidarity with the United States in its time of trouble. The fight against terrorism is transforming the international geopolitical system, creating opportunities for nations around the world to exploit Washington's sudden shift in attention. Part of the fallout of Sept. 11 is that issues that once were key, like the potential rise of China as a global power, have become lower priorities. This change means Washington will no longer restrain many secondary and tertiary powers from pursuing their own local and regional interests -- so long as they tie those interests to the concept of anti-terrorism.
For Washington, this shift entails a surge in support
for its immediate goal not only from traditional European and Asian allies but also from many states formerly considered pariahs or at least undesirables. For countries like Germany and Japan, the war on terror offers an opportunity to expand their own re-emergence into the international security system while proving their worth to the United States. More importantly over the longer term, however, Washington may condone -- or at least not condemn -- actions by other nations that it would not have countenanced under policy guidelines heavily influenced by the concept of human rights.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Geopolitical Agenda Turned on Its Head . . .