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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Argentina: Newest President May Soon Be Latest
January 4, 2002
Summary
Eduardo Duhalde, Argentina's fifth president since Dec. 21, this week obtained bipartisan congressional support to lead the country until the end of 2003. However, his government will not survive long if poor and middle-class voters reject his proposed economic program. If protests and riots erupt again, Duhalde's presidency will soon be over as well, forcing a very reluctant military to prop up a discredited political establishment until new elections are held.
Photo Credit: l'Agence France-Presse (AFP).
Analysis
New Argentine President Eduardo Duhalde, a populist left-wing Peronist, won a congressional appointment Jan. 2 to lead the country until the end of 2003, after negotiating multiple political deals with rival Peronist leaders and opposition political parties. However, Duhalde's political support is fragile, and he is unpopular with more than half of the country's voters, according to a flash poll conducted Jan. 3 by the Buenos Aires daily La Nacion.
Photo Credit: l'Agence France-Presse (AFP).
To remain in power, Duhalde must quickly win the Argentine public's support and stabilize the economy. However, if voters reject his new economic policies, massive street protests and violent riots could soon resume and force Duhalde's resignation. If Argentina loses its fifth president since Dec. 21, the escalating instability could force the reluctant military to step in and support an interim regime until early elections are held.
The litmus test of Duhalde's popular and political viability will come within the next few days, when he unveils a hastily assembled emergency economic program that will devalue Argentina's currency and likely shift the country away from the free-market policies it has followed since 1991. The new government is trying to keep its plan, which goes into effect Jan. 7, under wraps until Congress gives its approval.
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Dan
Argentina: Newest President May Soon Be Latest . . .