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STRATFOR.com
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Colombia: Violence Ensured as Peace Talks End
January 10, 2002
Summary
Colombian President Andres Pastrana ended peace talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia Jan. 9, giving the group 48 hours to leave their demilitarized zone. The move will intensify the level of violence throughout the country, including in urban areas. It may also give a boost to the president before elections in May.
Photo Credit: l'Agence France-Presse (AFP)
Analysis
Colombian President Andres Pastrana ended 3-year-old peace negotiations with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia late Jan. 9, and gave the rebels 48 hours to vacate the demilitarized zone (DMZ) they have controlled since November 1998.
Pastrana left open a door to resume negotiations, but his decision to order the FARC out of the DMZ will probably trigger a rapid escalation of violence across Colombia as early as next week, speeding the spread of violence into the urban areas.
Escalating warfare between the FARC, the army and right-wing paramilitary forces will likely affect the outcome of Colombia's presidential elections in May. Increasing hostilities inside the country will also affect the Andean region's stability, creating unexpected security and political headaches for the Bush administration. As the Colombian conflict accelerates in the coming months, the chances that the United States will get more directly involved will also increase.
Colombian government and FARC negotiators met last week for the first time since October 2001. However, the meeting dissolved quickly when Gen. Fernando Tapias, commander of Colombia's armed forces, told the negotiators that the issues of military security around the periphery of the DMZ and aerial surveillance of the rebel-controlled area were "not negotiable," according to the EFE wire agency.
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(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
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Colombia: Violence Ensured as Peace Talks End . . .