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Venezuela: Chavez Stoking Tensions To Consolidate Power
January 16, 2002
Summary
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is seeking a violent confrontation with his political opponents in order to declare a state of exception and rule with the military's support. Pro-Chavez militias will likely continue to harass and intimidate the president's critics, leading to increased bloodshed. But if Chavez attempts to seize absolute power, a popular and military rebellion will quickly topple his regime.
Analysis
Civilian militias aligned with President Hugo Chavez attacked opposition members in Venezuela's National Assembly Jan. 5 with rocks and bottles. Two days later, between 100 and 200 pro-Chavez street activists mobbed and threatened to torch the Caracas daily El Nacional, one of the president's fiercest media critics. U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said Washington is concerned about attempts by Chavez supporters to intimidate opposition politicians and the press, Agence France-Presse reported.
The incidents are the most recent indications that Chavez is seeking a confrontation between his shrinking band of supporters and his rapidly growing political opposition in order to declare a state of exception and seize absolute power. Political instability and social turmoil will increase during the first quarter of 2002 as Chavez further resorts to intimidation and violence to silence his opponents. But if the president continues on this course, it will trigger a popular and military rebellion that will end his regime.
Chavez may believe that an outbreak of violence will give him the political cover to declare a state of exception, allowing him to suspend civil and political liberties and essentially rule by one-man decree with the support of Venezuela's armed forces. However, such a strategy will backfire if the president tries to follow through with it.
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(Story Source)
(c) 2002 Stratfor, Inc.
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Venezuela: Chavez Stoking Tensions To Consolidate Power . . .