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Surrounded, Colombian Rebels Strike Back
January 18, 2002
Summary
Just hours after extending peace negotiations with the government, members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) staged several attacks, bombings and a prison break on Jan. 15. Such diffusion attacks -- far from the demilitarized zone where government troops surround FARC forces -- are common practice for the rebel group. Given the critical situation facing the FARC leadership, however, these attacks may be just a foretaste of what is to come.
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Analysis
On Jan. 15, suspected rebels from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
(FARC) attacked a police station, a prison, a courthouse and two electrical pylons --
launching strikes against four Colombian towns in all. The attacks began just hours
after the FARC agreed to extend peace negotiations with the government, which is
threatening to reclaim a 16,000-square-mile demilitarized zone ceded to FARC forces
in 1998.
The attacks are standard operating procedure for the FARC, which has been fighting the Colombian government for nearly four decades. The situation now, however, is different. At least 13,000 government troops, invigorated by U.S. military support and training, are poised on the outskirts of the DMZ, where they await the order to retake the territory. Given the critical situation in and around the DMZ, these latest strikes -- far from the massed government forces -- may be just a foretaste of more intense strikes to come.
Both sides in the current conflict understand the peace negotiations are about one thing -- time. Until recently, government forces could not really challenge FARC on the ground. With large swathes of Colombia under its control, the FARC already had much of what it wanted and needed only to keep the armed forces off-balance. The massive increase in U.S. military aid and training, which came as part of Washington's war on drugs, has shifted this tide.
Specific support from the U.S. military -- including intelligence, training and, more importantly, air-mobile assets -- have brought the Colombian military near a point where it can take the initiative on the ground. These new capabilities were demonstrated in February 2001 during Operation Black Cat, when helicopter-backed troops attacked FARC-supported drug operations in Barrancominas. The operation showed the military's ability to identify key nodes in FARC operations, penetrate deeply into FARC territory and bring the battle to the enemy.
The military is once again threatening to bring the battle to the FARC. More than 13,000 troops from the army, navy and air force -- part of the Southern Joint Task Force -- are deployed around the DMZ, according to statements by army commander Gen. Jorge Mora. Government forces include 4,500 rapid-deployment troops, tanks and helicopters.
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(c) 2002 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Surrounded, Colombian Rebels Strike Back . . .