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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it’s in the news, it’s too late...
The Saudi Crisis
January 21, 2002
By George Friedman
Founder and Chairman of STRATFOR
Summary
Recent media reports have stated that Saudi Arabia's rulers want to end Washington's military presence in the country. Statements by U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell have been intended to close the issue, but a close reading of what he actually said raises more questions than answers. The two countries have a long history, and Riyadh has proven invaluable to U.S. interests in the region. But strategic divisions following Sept. 11 have made a split increasingly likely.
Analysis
There have been deep tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia ever since Sept. 11. This development was fairly well-finessed by both sides, neither of which wanted it to become public. The tensions were there nonetheless.
On one side, the United States was creating a coalition to fight al Qaeda. Washington
made cooperation in fighting the group a litmus test of friendship with the United
States. On the other side in Saudi Arabia, itself a bulwark of conservative Islam, the
royal family was deeply divided over cooperation with the United States. The pressure
on the relationship was substantial, and last week it broke out into the open.
It began when Michigan Sen. Carl Levin, the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said the United States should begin thinking of shifting its forces out of Saudi Arabia to other countries in the region that might be more hospitable. This was followed by a story Jan. 18 in the Washington Post that cited a "senior Saudi official" as saying the United States has "overstayed its welcome" in the country. He added that, following completion of the Afghan campaign, new forms of "less conspicuous military cooperation should be devised."
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, while on a visit to Pakistan, India and Nepal, suddenly found himself with what appeared to be a crisis in the Persian Gulf. On the surface, Powell seemed to dismiss the Post story out of hand Jan. 19. However, a careful reading of his statement shows something quite different. Powell made three statements:
1. "There have been no discussions of such an issue."
2. "There is nothing in that story that warrants my attention at the moment."
3. "We are constantly reviewing our footprint in that part of the world to see if we have the right distribution of our presence over the various countries that are there. We want to be good guests in all the countries that host our military forces, so I know [Defense] Secretary [Donald] Rumsfeld keeps this under constant review."
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
The Saudi Crisis . . .