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STRATFOR.com
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U.S.-Russian Relations Being Tested
February 4, 2002
Summary
Russian President Vladimir Putin has chosen to extensively cooperate with the United States, but so far Moscow has only received token handouts in exchange for numerous concessions. Unless Putin can show he is getting substantial benefits from Washington, the Russian populace may rank him alongside past leaders Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin as a puppet of the West.
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Analysis
U.S. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice said Jan. 31 that the United States is seeking Russia's help in promoting change in Iran, Iraq and North Korea -- specifically in halting the spread of weapons technology to and from these countries. The same day, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov met with U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell to hammer out the details of the May 23 U.S.-Russia summit. Most of the conversation reportedly had to do with President Vladimir Putin's economic reforms. In other words, the United States continues to place demands on Russia in foreign policy while dangling economic benefits in front of it.
The United States has put Putin on the spot. His rise to power stemmed partly from the failure of his predecessor's economic policies and partly from the perception, following the Kosovo war, that Russia had submitted to U.S. foreign policy demands in return for very little. Indeed, Russians saw their last two leaders, Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin, as accommodating themselves to Western demands in both economic and foreign policy, without receiving any of the expected rewards. In the minds of many Russians, their Westernizing leaders were at best dupes and at worst traitors who sold out Russia for nothing. Clearly, Putin cannot afford to become the third leader of this type.
The United States turned to Russia for strategic support early during the Afghan war. Washington was in an extremely difficult position: It had to respond militarily in Afghanistan, but geopolitical realities limited access to the country. It was forced to depend on both political and strategic support from Russia. Despite a fairly rocky start to relations with the Bush administration, Putin chose extensive cooperation with the United States. He obviously expected a mutually beneficial relationship.
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(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
U.S.-Russian Relations Being Tested . . .