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Europe's Military Mirage
February 7, 2002
Summary
European leaders are concerned about growing U.S. unilateralism and their own loss of power and stature as partners in global security. That concern is unlikely to go away so long as Europe lacks a powerful and unified military force. Entrenched barriers to true European unity rule out the development of such a force, and immediate limitations will widen the military capabilities gap between the United States and Europe.
Analysis
Richard Perle, a key security adviser to U.S. President George W. Bush, said Feb. 2 at an international security conference in Munich that the United States has "never been more willing, if necessary, to act alone" to protect itself from terrorism. At the same conference, NATO Secretary-General George Robertson warned European countries that they must improve their military capabilities if they are to operate alongside and influence the United States.
The security conference highlights concerns in Europe and elsewhere that the United States is embarking on an increasingly unilateralist foreign policy -- leaving Europe a secondary partner to be called on when needed but rarely consulted. These concerns are justified, but Europe will have a difficult time changing the situation. Immediate and longer-term obstacles -- tied primarily to national identities -- will keep Europe from developing the unified, transnational military force it needs to move beyond its status as a permanent junior partner.
Europe's lack of military might will hinder its ability to serve as a counterbalance to the United States in foreign policy. A pattern is emerging in which Washington dictates the terms and Europe bristles. If this continues, it will weaken the trans-Atlantic alliance, and the United States may find that its European allies are less willing to do its bidding.
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(c) 2002 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Europe's Military Mirage . . .