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Peru: Rebel Group Joining in Colombian Alliance
February 8, 2002
Summary
The remnants of Peru's deadly Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) insurgent group are stirring back to life thanks to an expanding alliance with Colombian drug traffickers and the FARC. Shining Path is trying to rebuild its numbers and weaponry by working in the heroin trade. Peru is poised to become one of the world's biggest heroin producers, while Shining Path's revival likely will complicate U.S. anti-drug and anti-terrorism operations in the Andean region of South America.
Analysis
Drug-production data coming out of Peru show that the country may soon become the top heroin producer in the Americas. U.S. government officials say they believe that an alliance between Peruvian Maoist insurgent group Shining Path, Colombian drug traffickers and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebel group is responsible for the sharp increase in Peru's poppy production during the past year.
After lying low for nearly a decade, Shining Path's resurgence likely will lead to an increase in rural and urban terrorist actions in Peru during the next one or two years, creating unexpected security headaches for President Alejandro Toledo. Although it is a shadow of its former self and does not present a major threat to the Peruvian armed forces or government, Shining Path is starting to build up its capacity to carry out low-intensity urban bomb attacks, kidnappings and political assassinations.
At the same time, the increasing coca and poppy cultivation in areas where Shining Path is deeply entrenched, as well as the group's strengthening ties with Colombia, will raise the financial costs, strategic complexities and political risks of Washington's war on both drugs and terrorism in South America's Andean region. As the blurry line between both conflicts disappears in Colombia, Peru and other Andean countries, the Bush administration likely will expand U.S. military aid to this region.
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(Story Source)
(c) 2002 Stratfor, Inc.
Related Story:
* Peru Fears Reemergence of Violent Rebels
Scott Wilson -- Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, December 10, 2001
With the example of the notorious Sendero Luminoso laying low for a nearly a decade, how long will the remnants of the al Qui'da lay low, while dutifully training their children to eventually carry on their insane work?
Dan
Peru: Rebel Group Joining in Colombian Alliance . . .