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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it’s in the news, it’s too late...
Iraq: The New Test of Allegiance
February 15, 2002
Summary
It appears the Bush administration has selected Iraq as the next target in its anti-terrorism war. Doing so serves two purposes: It adds a conventional component to a battle that is otherwise murky and difficult for the public to comprehend. It also serves as a litmus test that, for other nations, will define the rules of membership in Washington's anti-terrorism coalition.
Image Credit: Stratfor.com.
Analysis
The fundamental problem with the war on al Qaeda is that it is invisible. It is a covert war against, at most, a few thousand individuals who are both scattered throughout the world and highly mobile. It is also a war of inferences, lies and, ultimately, confusion. It is a war of contemplation rather than a war of action, as intelligence analysts on both sides try to determine what the other side knows and when it knew it. It is a war of sudden, unpredictable actions often undetectable by the other side. And it is a war invisible to the media and, therefore, to the public.
At the same time, it is a war that could suddenly take the lives of thousands of Americans. Indeed, if al Qaeda has secured even minor weapons of mass destruction, it can suddenly take the lives of tens of thousands or even more. This creates tremendous pressures. The war against al Qaeda will be long, invisible and uncertain. Even those prosecuting the war will frequently be uncertain as to what is happening, and the public will have no way to determine progress.
The credibility of the U.S. government -- regardless of who the president might be -- would be sorely tested by such a war. In a democratic society, the foundation of any war is the trust the public is prepared to grant its government. That trust will be hard to sustain in the war against an invisible enemy, without geographic or temporal definition. No one can tell if victory is at hand or beyond reach.
By this standard, Afghanistan was very good for the United States. Even if the deep structure of Afghan society was beyond the grasp of the media and most Americans, the campaign in Afghanistan provided a clear arena and some understandable yardsticks against which to measure. Although nothing important was decided there, something was decided about Afghanistan -- and that meant something solid could be seen in the gloom. It was a comfort to the American people. However, the moment of clarity in Afghanistan has passed, and it is now slowly dissolving into the general darkness of the larger "shadow war."
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Related Story:
* The Iraqi Question: Who Can Replace Saddam?
Stratfor, Inc., Strategic Forecasting, LLC.
Thursday, February 14, 2002
Dan
Iraq: The New Test of Allegiance . . .