<
--------------
STRATFOR.com
--------------
THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it’s in the news, it’s too late...
Myanmar: Anti-Terrorism War May Raise Strategic Value
February 20, 2002
Summary
Myanmar's military-led government recently said that "success is imminent" in negotiations with the opposition National League for Democracy. Yangon continues to engage the NLD in hopes the international community will loosen economic restrictions on the nation, but at the same time, it does not want to lose central control. The United States is not likely to let the regime have its cake and eat it too -- unless Myanmar has something more strategic to offer in regard to the anti-terrorism campaign.
Supporters of Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi gather for a rally to mark Independence Day in January.
Image Credit: Sukree Suplang -- Reuters.
Analysis
Myanmar's military-led government said recently that although the pace of unspecified negotiations with the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) is slow, their "success is imminent." The comments were part of an official statement sent to Reuters, in response to the Feb. 11 release of the U.S. State Department's latest assessment on conditions in the country and U.S. policy toward the government. Yangon called this year's report "more objective" than previous ones.
Yangon is attempting to maintain centralized control and national cohesion while trying to persuade the West to ease sanctions that have devastated the nation's economy and undermined its potentially lucrative oil and gas sector. Myanmar has lacked the strategic value that allowed countries like China and Vietnam to take a similar course, where centralized power and questionable human rights practices are only minor stumbling blocks to aid and investment. However, Washington's need for friendly Southeast Asian countries in the anti-terrorism war could strengthen Yangon's position.
The ruling State Peace and Development Council has been holding secret meetings for several months with the NLD, which has been kept out of power despite winning in elections more than 10 years ago. The government is also releasing NLD members from detention and allowing greater access to its Secretary-General Aung San Suu Kyi, currently under house arrest.
+++++++ NOTICE +++++++
This is an abbreviated version of a full-length STRATFOR report previously seen by our Members. To access STRATFOR's complete range of in-depth, objective intelligence and analysis on the globe, including our award-winning daily full text and graphics reports, click here and become a Member today!
->OR<-
Sign up here to receive our free daily briefing of important international events!
+++++++ NOTICE +++++++
(Story Source)
(c) 2002 Stratfor, Inc.
Related Stories:
* Myanmar says sanctions slowing democratisation
Aung Hla Tun -- Reuters
Wednesday, February 20, 2002
* Myanmar opposition demands democracy soon
Google.com Cached Page
Aung Hla Tun -- Reuters
Friday, January 4, 2002
* Aung San Suu Kyi
Digital Freedom Network
Monday, September 13, 1999
Dan
Myanmar: Anti-Terrorism War May Raise Strategic Value . . .