<
--------------
STRATFOR.com
--------------
THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it’s in the news, it’s too late...
United States Expands Anti-Terrorism War To Georgia
February 22, 2002
Summary
Two U.S. aircraft landed Feb. 21 in Georgia, likely setting the stage for a new U.S.-led counterterrorism operation against al Qaeda and Chechen militants in the Pankisi Gorge. A U.S. military presence in Georgia -- in addition to the deployment in Afghanistan -- will dramatically weaken Russia's strategic positions along its southern borders and push Russian forces out of former Soviet states in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
Analysis
Two U.S. Air Force craft carrying about 40 U.S. military personnel landed Feb. 21 in Tbilisi, the capital of the former Soviet state of Georgia, sources from Georgia's Interior Ministry and elsewhere tell STRATFOR. According to the Feb. 21 edition of Russian newspaper Nezavisimoe Voennoye Obozrenie, the personnel include Special Forces troops, who specialize in counterterrorism operations, and Air Force logistics personnel normally based at Incirlik, Turkey.
U.S. troops have never before been deployed to Georgia. The group's goal appears to be to prepare the ground for a new front in the U.S.-led anti-terrorism war -- this time in the Pankisi Gorge, a mountainous region that has been beyond the Georgian government's control for several years. According to U.S. and Russian government sources, dozens of al Qaeda fighters found refuge in the gorge along with several hundred allied Chechen militants, who also use the area as a regrouping and logistics base in their war against Russia. It appears that Washington is taking its fight against al Qaeda into Russia's back yard, much to Moscow's chagrin.
The move comes barely a week after the United States' acting ambassador to Georgia selectively linked Russia's Chechen rebellion to Osama bin Laden. As STRATFOR wrote at the time, those comments appeared to pave the way either for Moscow to pursue Chechen militants based in Georgia with a free hand or else be forced to accept the humiliation of a U.S. deployment to the region -- Moscow's nightmare scenario. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin was quick to declare himself an ally in the war on terrorism, Washington has repeatedly put him on the spot by slowing rewards for Russia. The pressure on Putin is rising still, as the latest U.S. move will significantly change the balance of power in the Transcaucasus region.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
United States Expands Anti-Terrorism War To Georgia . . .