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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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The Division of Afghanistan Begins
February 26, 2002
Summary
Ethnic Pushtuns are being forced from northern Afghanistan as local warlords move to crush pockets of potential resistance. The new violence is a significant step toward increasing the power of local warlords, at the interim government's expense.
Image Credit: Stratfor.com.
Analysis
A United Nations official said Feb. 19 that some 20,000 people, mostly Pushtuns, have been forced to flee northern Afghanistan under threat of persecution since the beginning of the year. Violence against Pushtuns began in late December, according to anecdotal reports, though the U.N. implied the pace has increased substantially since early February.
Ethnic Pushtuns formed the core of the Taliban movement that once controlled most of Afghanistan. Western media reports frame the violence against Pushtuns as reprisal for years of Taliban brutality, but there is likely more to the story. Removing the Pushtun population from northern Afghanistan is a way to consolidate power and squelch potential rebellion against the ruling warlords before it happens. It also is a big step in consolidating the power of regional warlords, thus decreasing the influence of Afghanistan's fledgling central government and contributing to the de facto partitioning of the country.
A weakened central government will become increasingly irrelevant as outside powers choose to do business with local warlords or their external sponsors, such as Iran, Pakistan and Uzbekistan. A neutered regime in Kabul also would be increasingly ignored by the international aid community, which would mean a severe blow to any hopes of economic revival in Afghanistan.
Pushtuns occupy a number of pockets in northern Afghanistan, especially in the provinces of Kunduz, Baghlan and Takhar. Several warlords -- including ethnic Uzbek leader Abdul Rashid Dostum, ethnic Hazara leader Mohammad Mohaqiq and ethnic Tajik leader Ustad Atta Mohammad -- control the area and are allied in a loose security pact.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
The Division of Afghanistan Begins . . .