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Beheading Video Backfiring on Arroyo
February 28, 2002
Summary
The Philippine media released a video Feb. 18 showing the beheading of two hostages of a Muslim rebel group. The government hoped the video would boost support for a recent U.S. troop deployment in the country. However, controversy surrounding the video's release caused the plan to backfire. President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's determination to keep defending her past decisions, rather than to focus on other important issues, may diminish her support in the long run.
Analysis
Philippine TV stations last week repeatedly showed a video depicting the beheading of two people whom the military claims were hostages of the Muslim Abu Sayyaf rebel group. The video's release was aimed at enhancing support for the recent deployment of U.S. troops to Basilan Island in the southern Philippines -- where rebel groups such as Abu Sayyaf are highly active -- to help train Filipino forces.
However, a controversy over the video's origins has caused the effort to backfire. Rather than trying to move on to more important issues, such as the economy, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's continued attempts to justify her controversial decisions are keeping the deployment issue alive and providing more ammunition to her opponents. Her defensiveness will undermine her public support and create political gridlock in the Philippines.
Questions over when the video was found and who was actually on the tape surfaced soon after its release. Although the government insists Abu Sayyaf members are the culprits in the video, filmed in 1994 and 1995, opposition figures including former President Joseph Estrada and members of the media say rebels from the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) are actually the ones on tape.
Furthermore, military spokesman Brig. Gen. Edilberto Adan claimed Feb. 19 that the video was seized in 2001 from an Abu Sayyaf camp, the BBC reported. But Defense Secretary Angelo Reyes contradicted this assertion when he said the military got a hold of the video in 1998 after the Abu Sayyaf had sent it to Saudi Arabia for circulation to gain support from extremists, the Malaya reported. The government reportedly showed the video in 2000 to business executives and religious groups to drum up support for action against the MILF, the Philippine Inquirer reported.
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(c) 2002 Stratfor, Inc.
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Tuesday, February 26, 2002
* Arroyo wages hate campaign on bandits
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Sunday, February 24, 2002
Dan
Beheading Video Backfiring on Arroyo . . .