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Bahrain's Political Reforms Mask Power Struggle
March 1, 2002
Summary
The Sunni Muslim-led government in Bahrain is reforming the political system in order to pacify a vocal and increasingly discontented Shiite majority. However, these measures are limited in substance and may end up fueling more dissent and unrest in the country, a leading Persian Gulf banking center and U.S. Navy headquarters.
Analysis
Bahrain leader Sheik Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa Feb. 14 proclaimed himself king and declared his country a constitutional monarchy. Hamad also dissolved Bahrain's appointed consultative council, paving the way for the establishment of a bicameral parliament following elections scheduled for October this year. Kuwait is currently the only Persian Gulf country with an elected parliament.
The government's transformation from the emirate system into a constitutional monarchy has been heralded as a step toward democracy. It's not. Instead, it reflects the latest battle in an unresolved power struggle between Bahrain's minority Sunni Muslim-led government and the majority Shiite Muslim community. The shift will in the near term bring this struggle to the fore and could lead to another period of unrest in the tiny archipelago.
Instability in Bahrain could impact security and business in the entire Persian Gulf region. The country is not a major oil producer but does have a vital refining industry that imports crude from neighboring states. It is also an important financial hub for the region, with many foreign banks located in the capital Manama. Moreover, Manama is also headquarters for the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet and a center for U.S. military operations in the Gulf.
Cooperation between Bahrain's two religious sects is critical to maintaining the island's calm. The situation in the country mirrors a historical contest between Islam's two largest sects throughout the Middle East and especially in the Persian Gulf. It also reflects two distinct communities' struggle for control over Bahrain's resources.
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Dan
Bahrain's Political Reforms Mask Power Struggle . . .