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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it’s in the news, it’s too late...
A Field Guide To The Afghan Conflict
February 4, 2002
Analysis
U.S. forces over the weekend launched the largest assault in five months on suspected al Qaeda and Taliban fighters near the eastern Afghan town of Gardez. So far nine U.S. soldiers are known to have been killed in the assault, including seven who died after their helicopter took fire and crashed.
Image Credit: France-Presse (AFP).
STRATFOR forecasted last year that Taliban and al Qaeda forces would still remain a threat, despite their retreat from the cities. In addition, we predicted that whatever government replaced the Taliban would quickly fall into ethnic and factional infighting. The following is a brief breakdown of the current U.S. assault, as well as other emerging and potential conflicts that threaten to break the country apart.
Image Credit: Stratfor.com.
Gardez
About 600 U.S. soldiers from the Army's 10th Mountain Division, 101st Airborne and Special Operations are leading around 1,000 Afghan fighters against al Qaeda and Taliban forces, which have been estimated at between 500 to 1,000. Most of the fighting is taking place in the Arma hills, some 25 miles southeast of Gardez in Paktia province.
Sources in Iran suggest that the assault began when the local council in Gardez refused after several days of negotiations to hand the Taliban and al Qaeda fighters over to U.S. forces. These sources add that many of the Afghans fighting with the United States are not local, and were flown in from Pushtun-populated areas such as the southeastern city of Khost, a few dozen miles from Gardez.
In addition to eliminating the Taliban and al Qaeda presence in Paktia, Washington hopes to destroy a massive cache of arms and ammunition that is reportedly hidden in the area. Such a loss would be extremely costly for the Taliban fighters, who do not have secure supply lines leading out of Afghanistan.
Afghan and U.S. forces reportedly approached the battlefield from the north, west and south, in hopes of cutting off the major avenues of escape. Secondary escape routes are less feasible, since winter snows have not melted, leaving drifts of up to three feet. The western road is reportedly full of checkpoints manned by U.S. and Afghan fighters.
Reports from Pakistan's Frontier Post and the Washington Post suggested that U.S. and Afghan forces lost the element of surprise and were not able to press the attack as much as they had planned. Rather, it appears that U.S.-led forces are content to maintain as tight a seal as possible around the area and let helicopters and aircraft lead the attack.
* Counterattacks
* Earlier Action
* Ethnic and Factional Tension
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
A Field Guide To The Afghan Conflict . . .