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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Rough Road Ahead for U.S.-Colombia Relations
March 6, 2002
Summary
Colombia's next president likely will be Alvaro Uribe Velez, who advocates all-out war against the country's guerrillas. One of his first actions as president would be to seek more U.S. military aid for that war. It's likely that Uribe Velez will try to condition Colombia's continued support for U.S. drug policy on more military aid from the Bush administration.
Image Credit: France-Presse (AFP)
Analysis
A national election survey in Colombia in late February showed that nearly 60 percent of voters would choose Alvaro Uribe Velez to succeed outgoing President Andres Pastrana, compared to only 39 percent in January. Unless he is assassinated -- security officials have disrupted at least 15 known attempts on his life so far -- Uribe Velez likely will win the May 26 presidential election.
One of his first actions as president probably would be to seek more military aid from the United States to wage war against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). He is also likely to make a broader appeal for international support, possibly through the United Nations, in attempts to end Colombia's 38-year-old conflict. However, the Bush administration recently shelved plans to increase military aid to the country and has nixed proposals to divert resources meant to fight drugs to the anti-guerrilla initiative. Relations between a government led by Uribe Velez and the Bush administration are likely to be difficult from the outset.
Bogota does not have the resources to simultaneously fight guerrillas, drug traffickers and paramilitary organizations. Without substantial military aid from external sources, Uribe Velez will be obliged to focus his government's increased defense and security outlays on the FARC. That could work against long-term U.S. interests in the region given that budget constraints would force a reduction in efforts to dismantle Colombia's paramilitary groups and eradicate illegal drug crops. The cultivation of coca and poppies likely would increase rapidly while the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) and other paramilitary groups would be left relatively free to wage an increasingly brutal war against the FARC and the smaller National Liberation Army (ELN).
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(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Rough Road Ahead for U.S.-Colombia Relations . . .