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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Europe's Battle of Wills in the Balkans
March 6, 2002
Summary
As Europe looks to unify its foreign and defense policy, the first test will be in the Balkans, where historical allegiances run deep. A geopolitical tug-of-war between Europe's two major powers -- Germany and France -- will make unity hard to come by in the region. Germany will likely win the battle for influence, but at the cost of regional stability.
Image Credit: Stratfor.com
Analysis
Several European papers reported March 4 that a French Army captain in Bosnia helped tip off former Bosnian Serb leader and alleged war criminal Radovan Karadzic about a NATO capture operation Feb. 28. NATO officials dismissed the report as "pure speculation" March 5, though the alliance has begun an inquiry, the New York Times reports.
The Balkans Regional Atlas [clickable map is here].
Image Credit: CIA.gov.
The allegation -- even if erroneous -- casts a pall over attempts by the European Union to formulate a coherent foreign policy in the Balkans. It also highlights a complicated dynamic in which various players -- including the United States, Germany, France, Great Britain and Turkey -- pursue various and often contradictory goals in the region. With the United States committed to disengaging from the Balkans, Germany will emerge as the dominant power in there and, by extension, in European defense policy.
Even with Germany at the helm, a lack of European unity could tempt some ethnic groups to exploit policy divisions, hoping to destabilize the region again to their advantage. This could put Europe's two main powers, France and Germany, directly at odds -- hardly a recipe for unity.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Europe's Battle of Wills in the Balkans . . .