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Yemen: U.S. Deployment May Trigger Attacks
March 11, 2002
Summary
The United States plans to deploy up to 100 soldiers to Yemen to train local security forces and assist in Yemen's hunt for al Qaeda. But strong opposition to the presence of U.S. forces in the country remains, and the mission may trigger a surge in attacks against U.S. assets and personnel.
Analysis
Approximately 100 American soldiers soon will be deployed to Yemen to train local security forces, act as military advisers and assist in the government's hunt for al Qaeda, Yemeni government officials have confirmed to Reuters. The Wall Street Journal reported March 1 that Washington had approved the deployment.
Yemen, located on the tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is considered a likely refuge for al Qaeda fighters fleeing Afghanistan, and the U.S. mission is designed to deny them sanctuary there. However, opposition to a U.S. military presence remains high, even among members of the government. President Ali Abdallah Salih's decision to permit greater U.S. involvement in domestic military operations may prompt opponents to resort to violence against U.S. assets and personnel in the coming months.
The deployment marks a significant expansion in military relations between Yemen and the United States. For years, Washington has conducted limited training missions for Yemeni troops, as part the International Military Education and Training assistance program.
However, the United States has several reasons to want to build on that relationship and expand its presence in Yemen. Beyond the immediate goal of denying al Qaeda a place to regroup, Washington also hopes to build a Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) facility on the Yemeni island of Socotra and secure access to strategic sea lanes in the Red and Arabian seas.
Yemen is more like the Wild West than a modern, industrial society. Firefights in the capital are common, much of the population carries weapons, arms smugglers and drug traffickers transit Yemen unmolested and the country serves as a networking base for militant groups from throughout the Middle East.
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(c) 2002 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Yemen: U.S. Deployment May Trigger Attacks . . .