I don't understand the complicated stuff.

I hope you're right. Given the countryside, the politics, the population and the history, I don't think so. Given that for "them" it's a religious jihad and for us it's a political affair, I think they will want their country more than we will, and we can't win without occupying the country.

At this point the US is committed, for a while anyway. I think sooner or later we'll declare victory and come home. If that's it I hope we don't waste lives.

Or the US will get tangled up somewhere else and just leave Afghanistan.

And, I hope you're right.

Arf