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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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New Kosovo Government Causing Concern for Macedonia
March 14, 2002
Summary
If their first week in office was any indication, Kosovo's new government officials plan to aggressively push the limits of their authority over the U.N.-administered Yugoslav province. This will threaten the stability of neighboring Macedonia and bolster the drug and arms trades in southern Europe.
Analysis
The top two political leaders of Kosovo's brand-new government wasted no time last week in pushing the limits of their power over the largely ethnic Albanian province. Newly elected President Ibrahim Rugova used his first official speech March 4 to call for independence, and Prime Minister Bajram Rexhepi angered Skopje the following day by saying the Kosovo government will not recognize a border demarcation agreed to last year between Yugoslavia and Macedonia.
Kosovo has been governed under the auspices of the United Nations Interim Administration in Kosovo (UNMIK) since June 1999. Although that organization still retains ultimate authority and conceivably could block certain initiatives, it will focus on transferring authority to the new government. The new administration in Pristina will increasingly be a voice for Albanian autonomy in the region, acting with the implicit support and protection of the United States and much of western Europe. Pristina's growing power will embolden ethnic Albanians in neighboring Macedonia, who will gradually push for greater autonomy from Skopje.
A pro-independence government in Pristina will destabilize Macedonia, increasing the likelihood of renewed ethnic violence there and throughout the region. It also could bolster organized criminal activity in the southern Balkans, where growing evidence suggests that ethnic Albanian groups are beginning to dominate the trade in drugs, weapons and prostitution. The new government in Pristina has yet to prove its desire or ability to crack down on organized crime, and social instability and the lack of a strong central authority in northern Macedonia will allow traffickers to operate with relative impunity.
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(c) 2002 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
New Kosovo Government Causing Concern for Macedonia . . .