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Palestinians Trying To Draw Syria, Lebanon, Israel Into Conflict
March 18, 2002
Summary
Palestinian militants claim to be staging attacks out of Lebanon into Israel. While a heightened threat from the north may force the Israeli government to redeploy its already overstretched supply of troops, the Palestinians likely hope to draw Syria and Lebanon into the conflict.
Analysis
Six Israelis were killed and seven wounded when Palestinian militants fired at passing cars on a road near Israel's border with Lebanon March 12, sparking a heightened state of alert in a normally quiet section of Israel. A member of the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, a militia linked to Palestinian President Yasser Arafat's Fatah movement, claimed the group carried out the attacks and infiltrated Israel via Lebanon, local media reported.
Six Israelis were killed and seven wounded when Palestinian militants fired at passing cars on a road near Israel's border with Lebanon March 12, sparking a heightened state of alert in a normally quiet section of Israel. A member of the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, a militia linked to Palestinian President Yasser Arafat's Fatah movement, claimed the group carried out the attacks and infiltrated Israel via Lebanon, local media reported.
The attack awakens concerns about the possibility of the Palestinians opening a northern front against Israel. Clashes on the Lebanese border are obviously not in Israel's interest, but neither the Syrians nor the Lebanese have much to gain either. All three parties are showing restraint at the moment, but Palestinian militants will likely continue the attacks to try and goad the Israeli government into a military response that could draw Syria and Lebanon into the conflict.
Israel's border with Lebanon is less than 50 miles long, yet it is an extremely dangerous place. The Hezbollah militia, supported by both Iran and Syria, controls southern Lebanon. It reportedly has hundreds of short-range Katyusha rockets aimed at Israel, though the group has been well behaved since Sept. 11. This is likely due to Israeli and U.S. pressure on Syria, which controls many of Hezbollah's supply lines and maintains 30,000 troops in Lebanon. Yet Israeli military planners remain concerned about the possibility of the northern border erupting into violence.
That concern was realized a few days ago, when Palestinians dressed in Israeli army uniforms set up an ambush on a well-traveled road in northern Israel. The Palestinians may have entered the area via Lebanon, though the Lebanese government denies the claim, and the Israeli government is withholding judgment. However, a small gun battle on the eastern end of the border the night before -- the first of its type since Israeli soldiers withdrew from Lebanon in May 2000 -- may have been meant to distract Israeli border security from the infiltration route.
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(Story Source)
(c) 2002 Stratfor, Inc.
Related Stories:
* 7 Israelis killed, 7 wounded as gunmen fire on vehicle in northern Israel
The Associated Press
Tuesday, March 12, 2002
* Terrorists shoot dead six Israelis near Lebanese border
The Jerusalem Post
Tuesday, March 12, 2002
Dan
Palestinians Trying To Draw Syria, Lebanon, Israel Into Conflict . . .