<
--------------
STRATFOR.com
--------------
THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it’s in the news, it’s too late...
The Cheney Tour: A Confrontation of Fears
March 18, 2002
Summary
U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney's trip to the Middle East is in response to two fears. One is the American fear that al Qaeda will eventually acquire nuclear weapons and destroy American cities. The other is a fear in the Middle East, and indeed globally, that the United States, in the course of defending itself against this threat, will completely overturn the international system and impose upon the world an American empire. Both fears are reasonable.
Photo Credit: l'Agence France-Presse (AFP).
Analysis
Sept. 11 was a terrible day for the United States, but it did not threaten the very fabric of American society. Fifty September 11ths would not do that. But were al Qaeda to acquire nuclear, biological or chemical weapons and the ability to use them effectively, then that social fabric could indeed be threatened. In his various taped messages, Osama bin Laden warned of a cataclysm facing the United States. There is no question that bin Laden wants to destroy the United States, and there is no question that he is a capable man with a capable organization. So the threat cannot be dismissed. There appears to be sufficient evidence in the hands of U.S. intelligence about al Qaeda's attempts to secure nuclear weapons to create this situation:
1. The United States knows that al Qaeda wants to destroy it.
2. The obvious means to attain this end is to use nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction.
3. The U.S. knows that al Qaeda has tried to obtain such weapons.
4. It cannot be ruled out that al Qaeda has already obtained nuclear weapons. While we cannot know for sure that they have them now, it is almost certain that al Qaeda will continue trying to obtain these weapons.
5. If at all possible, they will use them.
If al Qaeda already has these weapons, it is imperative that the United States obliterate al Qaeda as quickly as possible. Ideally, U.S. intelligence would know for certain whether such weapons have been obtained and where they are located. However, the United States must assume that it has, at best, incomplete data. Therefore, even if it knows the current location of al Qaeda weapons, it understands destroying that particular set of weapons would not destroy all of them.
The United States must also assume that if these weapons were in the United States already, they would have been used by now. The threat of compromise and capture of such valuable assets would force al Qaeda to use them as quickly as possible. It follows that if al Qaeda has obtained significant nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, they are located where al Qaeda operatives are working. Most likely they are in the process of being moved into the United States and are in transit at some point in the complex international structure.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
The Cheney Tour: A Confrontation of Fears . . .