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Chavez Seeking To Distance Military Opposition
March 27, 2002
Summary
A plan by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to reorganize and relocate elite army units would reduce the risk that these groups could be used in a military coup against the president. However, the proposal also would cripple the army's capacity to gather intelligence and interdict rebel groups and drug traffickers who operate along the border with Colombia, thus increasing the level of violence in the border states.
Analysis
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has approved a plan to restructure and relocate military infantry and armored units currently headquartered in Caracas, Maracay and other bases near Venezuela's capital. Defense Ministry sources say the goal of the plan is to reorganize the army to reflect Venezuela's social, economic and security needs.
In fact, the reorganization would move elite infantry and armored units that could threaten the stability of the Chavez regime a significant distance from Caracas. Instead of an organizational overhaul to make the army more efficient, the plan suggests that Chavez and his civilian political backers have doubts about the army's loyalty to the president.
Chavez has good reason to worry. His military backing has collapsed due to corruption allegations against senior Chavez-linked generals, as well the president's public friendship with Cuban President Fidel Castro and Colombian rebel groups, both of which the military traditionally view as threats to Venezuela's national security. Several high-level military officials over the past two months have also taken the unusual step of making their criticism of the president public. The main thing keeping Chavez secure right now is the lack of a charismatic official to lead the opposition.
While it may help Chavez's political position, his plan will also cripple the army's capacity to gather intelligence and interdict armed irregular groups that operate with growing impunity in Venezuelan states on the border with Colombia, according to a military intelligence (DIM) report which called the proposal harmful to Venezuela's national security. Caracas daily El Universal published the DIM document March 19. Nearly two dozen infantry and armored brigades, battalions and companies will be affected, including seven elite counterinsurgency battalions that will be disarmed and given duties such as building roads and schools.
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(c) 2002 Stratfor, Inc.
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Chavez Seeking To Distance Military Opposition . . .