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STRATFOR.com
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Arab Summit: Winners and Losers
March 27, 2002
Summary
The Arab League summit in Beirut has turned into a political nightmare for the Arab world and for Saudi Arabia in particular. The fallout from the fiasco will be far-ranging -- influencing everything from the war in Israel to the potential U.S. campaign against Iraq to chances for future intra-Arab cooperation.
Image Credit: Stratfor.com.
Analysis
The March 27-28 Arab League summit in Beirut has turned into a political embarrassment for the Arab world and for Saudi Arabia in particular. Before the conference even began, almost half of the Arab nations' leaders said they would skip it, and others -- including Palestinian and Saudi officials -- withdrew shortly after the meeting started.
Sheikh Maktoum, Sheikh Mohammed and Sheikh Abdullah at the summit.
Image Credit: WAM.
The debacle will have ramifications for both regional players and external actors such as the United States that are heavily involved in the region. The fallout will be greatest in Saudi Arabia and Israel, but other states -- including Iraq and Egypt -- will feel it as well. Both the winners and the losers will be jockeying in the days ahead either to recover from the damage or to exploit it.
The refugee issue was the most contentious.
Image Credit: The Associated Press.
The summit was designed to address two key issues facing the Arab world: Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah's call for Arab peace with Israel in exchange for Israel's withdrawal to its 1967 borders and, unofficially, a potential U.S. military campaign against Iraq. Riyadh's initiative was primarily a tool for deflecting U.S. pressure on the kingdom to cooperate in rooting out suspected al Qaeda militants and supporting a strike against Iraq. But the boycott by so many Arab states suggests that Vice President Dick Cheney's regional tour earlier this month was more successful than expected. By not backing the Saudi plan, the Arabs shredded its credibilty.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Arab Summit: Winners and Losers . . .