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Iran's Reformists Ponder the Unthinkable
April 2, 2002
Summary
U.S. pressure is accentuating the political battle lines within Iran. Reformist factions now feel compelled to take on conservative elements in the government quickly, in order to escape Washington's wrath. This could force reformists to more openly challenge the regime in the next few months.
Analysis
Iran's judiciary stated March 26 that it intends to go ahead with the trials of the country's oil minister, the governor of the central bank and other senior politicians, as part of an anti-corruption drive launched by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Financial Times reported. Khamenei's attempted purge is an example of how U.S. political and military pressure is sharpening the political divisions within Iran.
Threats by the Bush administration aimed at Tehran have created a sense of urgency on both sides. Hard-liners are cracking down on pro-reformers more than ever. And with the approach of summer --- historically a period of high tensions in Iran -- reformist factions may be considering open confrontation with the regime.
Before Sept. 11, Iran's reformists -- who believed that limited economic and social reforms would revitalize the country -- were playing a waiting game with the hard-liners, who believed that reform would undermine the nation's religious foundation. The hard-liners controlled most of the government and the judiciary, but reformists then felt that time was on their side.
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(c) 2002 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Iran's Reformists Ponder the Unthinkable . . .