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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Israel's Desperate Offensive
April 2, 2002
Summary
Israel's latest offensive against Palestinian militants is designed to disrupt the infrastructure that supports suicide bombers. Without substantial intelligence about the networks' leadership, Israel has launched a frontal assault, hoping to net as many potential suicide bombers as possible. The operation is a desperate measure that will only serve to further inflame the conflict and lead to extreme measures on both sides.
Image Credit: l'Agence France-Presse (AFP).
Analysis
Israel called up an additional 11,000 reserves April 1 to complement the 20,000 that were already activated March 29. This is a massive military and political statement that gives credence to the Israeli assertion that its new offensive in the West Bank will take some time. Regular Israeli army forces backed by tanks, armored personnel carriers and helicopter gunships have simultaneously entered Bethlehem, Qalqilya, Rafaf and Tulkarm. The military has also tightened its hold on Ramallah, particularly around Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's compound, and launched short excursions into Hebron, likely for reconnaissance.
Israel's new offensive began days ago, after a suicide bomber killed 22 people at a Passover dinner in Netanya. The current campaign is designed to disrupt the infrastructure that allows suicide bombers to flourish. Israel will do this by targeting its main component: people. The plan suggests that Israel is operating with minimal intelligence about the suicide networks and is growing increasingly desperate. That desperation is leading to extreme measures that, in the coming weeks, will further inflame the conflict, leaving Israel bogged down in the West Bank and Gaza, vulnerable to other threats.
Israel's latest tactics could trigger unrest in neighboring states. For the moment, the conflict is contained, but the hotter it gets, the more likely are other actors, like Hezbollah in south Lebanon, to get involved.
Nevertheless, Israel must act. It has sustained what leaders consider an intolerable number of casualties during the past month: of 415 Israelis killed since the Palestinian uprising began 18 months ago, 127 reportedly were killed between March 1 and April 1. Most were victims of Palestinian suicide bombers.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
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Dan
Israel's Desperate Offensive . . .