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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it’s in the news, it’s too late...
U.S. Pursues Quiet Agenda With Syria
April 2, 2002
Summary
The United States has begun to pressure the Syrian government publicly to halt its
support for terrorism. The main stated U.S. concern is Israel's northern border, but
this area is relatively secure. Washington may be using the issue as leverage for
another, unstated reason: perhaps to compel Syria to fall in line with U.S. policy
concerning al Qaeda, weapons of mass destruction or Iraq.
Image Credit: Stratfor.com.
Analysis
At an April 1 press conference, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld placed
Syria alongside Iraq and Iran as he listed countries that encourage terrorism.
Rumsfeld's statement followed a tension-filled weekend on Israel's northern border,
where Hezbollah fired anti-tank rockets and grenades at Israeli military positions and
Israeli warplanes hit Hezbollah targets in retaliation. Hours after Rumsfeld's
comments, a Katyusha rocket was fired from Lebanon into Israel.
Rumsfeld appeared to be chiding Syria for failing to keep the Lebanese-Israeli border quiet, but that may not be the case. Given that the northern Israeli border is relatively secure, Rumsfeld's statements may be a way of pressuring Syria to cooperate with U.S. policies in other areas -- such as taking action against al Qaeda, controlling the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and supporting U.S. policies toward Iraq.
If that is the case, stating it directly would do neither the United States nor Syria much good. Given the instability within the regime, Syrian President Bashar Assad would be forced either to comply -- appearing a tool of Western interests and risking a palace coup -- or reject U.S. demands outright. Under such circumstances, Washington often does better to shift attention in secondary directions.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
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Dan
U.S. Pursues Quiet Agenda With Syria . . .