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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Bahrain's Moves Toward Iraq May Belie U.S. Strategy
April 3, 2002
Summary
Bahrain took an odd and seemingly dangerous step April 3 by announcing that it will appoint an ambassador to Iraq. The tiny Gulf island state may be motivated by regional concerns, but given its close working relationship with the United States, it also may be betting that the appointment won't alienate Washington. The source of that confidence might be a clue as to Washington's true plans for the region.
Image Credit: l'Agence France-Presse (AFP).
Analysis
Bahrain announced April 3 that it will appoint an ambassador to Iraq. Manama downgraded ties with Baghdad in 1990 to protest its invasion of Kuwait, but relations have been warming recently: Bahrain has a charge d'affaires in Baghdad, and Iraq sent its first ambassador to Manama last year.
Even so, the appointment of an ambassador is a substantive leap in diplomatic relations. The appointment comes at a particularly awkward time, since the United States has declared repeatedly that it means to topple the regime in Baghdad. It is telling that Bahrain -- home of the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters -- chose this moment to announce the move. It could suggest that Bahrain is willing to alienate Washington at a decisive moment or, more likely, that the United States isn't quite as ready to strike Iraq as its rhetoric suggests.
Bahrain would be a key part of any U.S. military campaign against Iraq. Besides serving as headquarters for the 5th Fleet, it is also the site of a pre-positioned U.S. Air Force war-reserve depot and the base for regular U.S. Navy P-3 Orion reconnaissance operations for the region. Because of its strategic importance, Bahrain would be well aware of any U.S. military preparations in the region.
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(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Bahrain's Moves Toward Iraq May Belie U.S. Strategy . . .