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New Year's Surprise Coming from Myanmar Regime
April 5, 2002
Summary
The government of Myanmar is preparing to try relatives of former dictator Ne Win on treason charges stemming from an alleged coup plot in early March. The attack on Ne Win's powerful family is the latest in a series of moves by the ruling military junta to consolidate power among top office-holding generals. Signs are coming clear that Yangon, Myanmar's capital, is preparing to make a major political concession around April 17, the nation's New Year, in an attempt to reverse the direction of the spiraling economy and breathe life back into the isolated nation.
Analysis
Myanmar's military leadership announced March 1 that it intends to try relatives of former dictator Ne Win for high treason, in connection with an alleged coup plot that was foiled in early March. The March 7 detention of Ne Win's son-in-law, Aye Zaw Win and his three sons elicited an equal measure of surprise, hope and skepticism from outside observers and local supporters of the opposition National League for Democracy. Ne Win was long seen as a key power behind the ruling junta, despite his 1988 resignation after massive pro-democracy demonstrations.
Directly attacking the family of the erstwhile "godfather" of the military regime is just one of a series of moves by the top three generals to re-centralize power and curtail the growing influence of regional and local military commanders. As it reins in errant generals, top leaders are also quietly engaging the NLD in an effort to remove the international taboo of doing business with Myanmar. Facing an ever-bleaker economic future -- due to international isolation, rampant corruption and fiscal mismanagement -- it appears the regime is preparing to make a significant political demonstration close to the nation's April 17 New Year.
Sources with access to the NLD have confirmed recent rumors that the State Peace and Development Council, as the current military government is called, plans to release most if not all of the estimated 1,500 to 2,000 political prisoners currently being held in detention. The SPDC hopes such a move would send a signal to the international community, or at least to its near neighbors, that democracy is coming to Myanmar and, more importantly, that the doors are open for much-needed investment and trade. If the regime carries through with its plans, the opening could spur competition between China and India for influence in the strategically located country.
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(Story Source)
(c) 2002 Stratfor, Inc.
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New Year's Surprise Coming from Myanmar Regime . . .