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Peru's Post-Fujimori Intelligence Significantly Weaker
April 9, 2002
Summary
Peruvian police suspect that Shining Path was responsible for the March 20 car bomb that exploded near the U.S. embassy in Lima. They cannot confirm these suspicions, however, because Peru's intelligence services have weakened significantly since the end of 2000. As evidence of Shining Path's revival accumulates, the Toledo government lacks the domestic intelligence capabilities to quantify the severity of the threat.
Analysis
Peruvian Deputy Interior Minister Gino Costa said April 2 that a "remnant" faction of Shining Path was the most likely perpetrator of a car bomb detonated March 20 near the U.S. embassy in Lima, three days before President George W. Bush arrived for an official visit. The Peruvian government so far has not been able to confirm these suspicions because its counter-terrorism and military intelligence capabilities have weakened significantly since the collapse of former President Alberto Fujimori's regime at the end of 2000.
Amid growing evidence that Shining Path is rebuilding, the car bomb showed that Peru's intelligence services have lost the capability to identify and neutralize major attacks before they happen. It also demonstrated that Shining Path and other extremist or criminal groups in Peru are likely to cause trouble in coming months for the unpopular Toledo government as it moves to slowly repair its crippled counter-terrorism and -drug intelligence capabilities.
The timing and location of the attack may have been intended to send the Bush administration a message: Increased U.S. military aid to Colombia to help its army fight the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) is likely to encourage attacks and political conflict in other Andean countries.
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(c) 2002 Stratfor, Inc.
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Dan
Peru's Post-Fujimori Intelligence Significantly Weaker . . .