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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Israel Preparing for Gaza Campaign?
April 12, 2002
Summary
As Israel's offensive in the West Bank continues, it appears that a similar campaign may be undertaken in the Gaza Strip. But there are a number of considerations Israel must weigh, such as whether opening another military front will unduly diffuse its military focus and forces.
Image Credit: l'Agence France-Presse (AFP).
Analysis
Despite Israel's gains in intelligence and a near complete lockdown of the Palestinian territories, at least six people were killed and 60 wounded in Jerusalem April 12 by a female Palestinian suicide bomber. The woman -- reportedly from the Jenin refugee camp, the site of fierce battles between Israeli military forces and Palestinian militants -- blew herself up at a crowded bus stop on the city's main Jaffa Road. The Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, a militant faction of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's Fatah movement, claimed responsibility for the blast, the second suicide attack in Israel in three days.
Secretary of State Colin Powell said he had spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on April 11, 2002, ahead of his visit to the region aimed at halting the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Powell (R) and Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov are seen before a news conference at Moncloa Palace, April 10.
Image Credit: Sergio Perez -- Reuters.
Two weeks into the Israeli military offensive in the Palestinian territories, the West Bank remains a flashpoint. Yet Israel has not matched its campaign in the West Bank -- aimed at destroying Palestinian militant infrastructure -- with a similar one in the Gaza Strip. It makes sense that Israel would prefer to deal with the territories in stages, but a number of recent incidents, as well as the logic of the Israeli campaign, suggest that Gaza will be the focus of an upcoming Israeli military offensive.
For the moment Israel is working on consolidating gains in the West Bank. At the same time, it is increasingly concerned about an explosion of violence along the northern border with Lebanon. Israel has responded to recent Katyusha rocket fire from the Islamic Hezbollah militant group in south Lebanon with a combination of remarkably restrained retaliatory air strikes and a series of diplomatic initiatives backed by both the United States and Russia. Yet Hezbollah continues to launch rockets across the border. This will lead Israel to weigh very carefully the opening of another front in Gaza.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
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Dan
Israel Preparing for Gaza Campaign . . . ?