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Russia: Looking for Leverage Through North Korea Ties
May 2, 2002
Summary
Russia and North Korea have significantly stepped up relations since last year, leaving China -- Pyongyang's other traditional sponsor -- far behind. North Korea stands to get help with infrastructure, transportation and energy development while Russia can present itself as the gateway to the country, giving Moscow a card to play in negotiations with the United States, South Korea and Japan. But given the North Korean regime's notoriously fickle nature, Russia will quickly see how ephemeral its influence in the country is if it presses for concessions.
Analysis
Konstantin Pulikovsky, Russian President Vladimir Putin's special envoy in the Russian Far East, paid his second visit this year to North Korea on April 24. Pulikovsky met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the country's armed forces, South Korean media reported. He also met with Kim during a visit to Pyongyang in February on the occasion of the Lunar New Year.
The visit is just the latest in a string of dialogues between Pyongyang and Moscow that has intensified since Kim's August 2001 visit to Russia. Both sides hope to gain strategic and economic advantages from the contacts. Russia also hopes to exploit its burgeoning ties with North Korea when dealing with the United States, Japan and South Korea. But it will likely find its influence in Pyongyang is barely surface-deep should it try to press concessions from North Korea's regime.
Russia -- or at least its predecessor the Soviet Union -- and China are North Korea's two traditional sponsors. Competition between Moscow and Beijing served Pyongyang's interests, as it could play the two powers off one another in order to gain economic, military and political benefits for itself. The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union saw Moscow's interest in North Korea wane, leaving Pyongyang to play a new game balancing South Korean, U.S., Japanese and Chinese interests.
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Dan
Russia: Looking for Leverage Through North Korea Ties . . .