<
--------------
STRATFOR.com
--------------
THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it’s in the news, it’s too late...
Myanmar: Military Putting Future in Suu Kyi's Hands?
May 8, 2002
Summary
Myanmar's pro-democracy opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi was freed from a 19-month-long house arrest May 6. The move was a calculated risk by the country's military regime. Releasing her could alter international perceptions of Yangon, opening up the country to renewed investments, aid and trade. On the other hand, the country's economic stability now rests in Suu Kyi's hands, since she knows the regime's chances for economic reconciliation will be lost if she is detained again.
Suu Kyi arriving at the party headquarters for work on Tuesday.
Image Credit: Reuters.
Analysis
Myanmar's military government released opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest May 6. Her long-anticipated release was greeted warmly in neighboring Southeast Asia, as well as by Europe and in Japan, Myanmar's largest aid donor. Such reactions are precisely what the regime had in mind and the government will continue to press ahead with symbolic gestures in an attempt to reverse an economic decline brought about by domestic corruption and international sanctions.
Pro-democracy opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is mobbed by supporters as she arrives at the headquarters of her National League for Democracy (NLD) after being freed from 19 months of house arrest in Yangon, Myanmar May 6, 2002. The Nobel peace laureate told supporters that she would carry on her fight to bring democracy to the military ruled country.
Image Credit: Sukree Sukplang -- Reuters.
The military has little intention of transferring authority to Suu Kyi or her opposition National League for Democracy, which has been kept out of power despite winning in elections more than 10 years ago. Her release is really more of a calculated risk. By lifting Suu Kyi's travel restrictions, Yangon expects to alter international -- or at least European -- perceptions of the regime, opening the country to increased aid, trade and investments.
The military must also ensure that Suu Kyi doesn't reinvigorate anti-government activities and undermine its grip on power. But sticking her back in detention would quickly slam the door on foreign investments and aid, leaving the regime with little chance of digging Myanmar out of its economic hole. This essentially puts the country's economic future in her hands.
+++++++ NOTICE +++++++
This is an abbreviated version of a full-length STRATFOR report previously seen by our Members. To access STRATFOR's complete range of in-depth, objective intelligence and analysis on the globe, including our award-winning daily full text and graphics reports, click here and become a Member today!
->OR<-
Sign up here to receive our free daily briefing of important international events!
+++++++ NOTICE +++++++
(Story Source)
(c) 2002 Stratfor, Inc.
Related Stories:
* Suu Kyi release a new dawn, says Bush
Press Trust of India (PTI)
Tuesday, May 7, 2002
* Suu Kyi: Minorities Need More Say
The Associated Press
Wednesday May 8, 2002
* Junta: Talks with Suu Kyi to resume
The Bangkok Post
Thursday, May 9, 2002
Dan
Myanmar: Military Putting Future in Suu Kyi's Hands . . . ?