Ofeq 5 is launched.

I see where the media is finally getting up enough guts to mention Israel's expansion of settlements in the West Bank and Gaza... let's see exactly how much guts they have: Today's topic is the American Kosher Delhi.

When we last visited these regions, the situation was such: we have very high population densities; people living in areas which are ecologically depleted, as they have been heavily occupied for 10,000 years and more; strong religious fervor; and weapons of mass destruction. Add in unclear borders left as a result of colonialism, and Britain's exhaustion at the end of World War 2: a prescription for disaster, on a scale much larger than many anticipate.

When Rummel gets over to India I wonder if he'll bother to mention to Vajpayee India's continuous support of the Tamil terrorists, and the resulting deaths of some 64,000 people in Ceylon? Oh, I see, if the terrorists are non-Moslem they do not count and are not worthy of mention?

Make no mistake about it, India is suffering population pressures, and this determines its policy towards both Sri Lanka and its negotiating position towards Kashmir. Besides supporting the Tamils, India has also undertaken a "settlement" program in the areas of Kashmir under its control. Sound familiar?

How exactly this Kashmir mess got started is beyond me, excpet that it has something to do with Britain's exhaustion following the Second World War (and we may be looking at Number 3 here, unless the leaders get on it) and possibly Dickie Montbatten getting a few blow jobs (though he was a really nice guy and blaming him personally would really be unfair).

Now following the end of arpatheid in South Africa, Israel was in desparate need of a new partner for weapons development. India had been ruled by the Congress Party, which had good relations with the Palestinians, another colonial people. But India's Hindu population grew, and the percent of them with nationalist aspirations finally became more numerous than India's liberal Hindu, Moslem, and Budhist populations.

The role of Israel in India's presidential elections and Vajpayee's win is not known to me. If Israel's west africa operations to control Congolese uranium are any indication, they were in it up to their necks.

After the Vajpayee win, India tested 3 nuclear devices of different and advanced design, prominently claiming that they were all India. One weapon appears tactical, the other possibly N-bomb; the third strategic, a boosted fission device. Would anyone mind at this point if I say I smell bullshit?

Israeli leadership seems to think that if a Pakistan-India war starts it will stay confined to that area, and that Israel itself will not be attacked, while its Islamic opponents will be occupied elsewhere. Sharon is using the opportunity presented by the current international focus on the area to once again attack the PA and to expand settlements.

But if war comes, Musharaf's continued control of Pakistan's nuclar arsenal would by no means be guaranteed.

Finally, you have the problem of great power involvement. At different points the Soviet Union had good ties with India, another "socialist" country, with the Congress Party in nearly complete control. Because of Soviet links, and border disputes, China under Mao worried about "encirclement", and Chinese support for Pakistan started then.
There is no sign that if war starts between India and Pakistan, China would let Pakistan go down.

The Indian and Pakistani scientists were smart enough to develop weapons of mass destruction; we will now see if India and Pakistan's leaders are smart enough to figure out a way not to use them. It is their responsibility to insure the lives of their people, and these things aren't the usual type of weapons.

One key to seeing that this happens is to understand Israel-India ties, document it, and make that knowledge public. No one likes nasty surprises.

ep

PS - now all we have to worry about is what bin Laden did with that billion or so a year in heroin money.