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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Storm Clouds Again Forming Over Venezuela
June 7, 2002
Summary
Multiple STRATFOR military and political sources in Caracas report that Venezuela soon may experience another outbreak of violence. This could result in a forced regime change, or it could serve to consolidate President Hugo Chavez's so-called "Bolivarian Revolution." If the reports are accurate, the violence likely will involve opposing elements of the armed forces and Chavez's armed civilian militias, called the "Bolivarian Circles."
Image Credit: l'Agence France-Presse (AFP).
Analysis
Multiple military and political sources in Caracas, including some within President Hugo Chavez's government, say another outbreak of violence in Venezuela, on par with that seen in April before the president's brief removal, is likely. Given the elevated political tensions between the Chavez government and its numerous (if uncoordinated) opponents, the possibility of a more permanent ousting of Chavez could be wishful thinking by some of these sources and exaggerated emotionalism by others.
However, if the consensus opinion STRATFOR has obtained in the past two weeks is accurate, Venezuela could be on the verge of a violent confrontation between the Chavez government and groups seeking a change of regime by any means. The sources agree that potentially violent actors in a conflict would include opposing elements of the armed forces (FAN), National Guard and armed members of the Bolivarian Circles -- civilian militia groups financed and coordinated by the Chavez regime.
If violent confrontation eclipses efforts to negotiate a political deal between Chavez and his opponents, there could be two possible outcomes. On one hand, if a second military rebellion fails to oust Chavez, he would finish ferreting out his political and military foes and consolidate his regime's control despite an economic crisis.
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(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Storm Clouds Again Forming Over Venezuela . . .