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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it’s in the news, it’s too late...
The War From al Qaeda's Standpoint
June 17, 2002
Summary
Recent reports say that al Qaeda is dispersing its forces globally and transferring control of the network to mid-level operatives. The move appears to be part of a reorganization of the group after a period in which it tried to identify its weaknesses. However, the group likely still feels little need to carry out an attack for now, as the United States continues to affirm that it is a viable power and threat.
Image Credit: l'Agence France-Presse (AFP).
Analysis
Reports emerged over the weekend about intensifying al Qaeda activity on a global level. First, the Washington Post reported that -- according to U.S. intelligence -- Osama bin Laden had ordered al Qaeda operatives to disperse around the world and to prepare to carry out actions against American and Jewish interests.
The New York Times, also citing U.S. sources in the CIA and FBI, reported that mid-level operatives have assumed command of the network, replacing senior leaders who have been killed, captured or isolated. Clearly U.S. intelligence is engaged in a concerted effort to paint a picture of an al Qaeda network that is moving into position to strike.
The issue at this point in the war is what al Qaeda is thinking and planning. In a way, nothing is more difficult in war than to look at the world from the point of view of the enemy. In all wars the enemy is vague and shadowy, and no enemy is as vague and shadowy as al Qaeda; seeing the world through its eyes is an extraordinarily difficult exercise. Nevertheless, it is the one indispensable element necessary for understanding what the group can or might do.
From the standpoint of al Qaeda, Sept. 11 was a qualified success. In attacking the United States, only one of its missions -- the attack on the World Trade Center -- was a complete success. The attack on the Pentagon failed to destroy the U.S. military's command and planning center; the attack on the White House ended in a Pennsylvania field.
Other attacks that appeared to have been planned had to be aborted when the U.S. government grounded all non-military aircraft. The attack on the World Trade Center did have enormous impact, psychologically and economically, but on a broader strategic level, Sept. 11 did not achieve what al Qaeda hoped for.
The single most important purpose of Sept. 11 had nothing to do with the United States; instead it was intended as a message to the Islamic world. Al Qaeda intends to create an Islamic empire -- from the Philippine island of Mindanao to Morocco -- based on Islamic law. In effect, al Qaeda wants to create an Islamic superpower.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
The War From al Qaeda's Standpoint . . .