The economy is not just weak, its unstable. Most people, once they take off the ideological blinders, are smart enough to realize that any sudden shock, such as a radical change in policy, could more easily send the economy into a death spiral than it could kick-start it into healthy growth. Most people don't understand the structural problems the economy has, and neither party has dared to discuss them. What I fear is that whichever party wins this November will pay a severe price for its failure to do so.

Obama has been here for over three years, and even though he has not made it all better, the world hasn't come to an end, either, and for a while there, you will recall nobody was ruling that out. As long as the economy remains on a relatively even keel, most people will be unwilling to take a chance with the new guy. On the other hand, if the economy starts to flounder, and it even starts to look like a relapse, people will be scared and will ready to try something different. It's really that simple. Nobody really takes the far Right seriously, not after the 2010 election, the Tea Party gridlock, and the campaign for the GOP nomination. But Romney is electable if conditions are right and if he doesn't blow it.

By now, nobody but the ideological far Right really believes Obama is a dangerous Leftist, much less a Socialist. In fact, it is pretty clear by now, much to the disgust of many of his own supporters, that he's actually to the right of Bill Clinton. The Independents and moderates on both parties know he is not an ideological crazy. Their judgement will be based on events, not philosophy. The question is, after the GOPs highly polarized and unprincipled bloodbath of a campaign, will Romney be able to appeal to them while also keeping his base excited. Regardless of where he actually stands, which is still not too clear, Mitt's got his hands full threading that needle.

Its highly unlikely things will remain the same for the next six months or so, but right now, in spite of the uncertainty, most people are still working and things are holding together, inflation is low and unemployment is slowly improving. Obama is, ironically, in the same place Bush was in 2004, except he's winding down a war, not getting bogged down in two. No one wants to change horses in mid-stream. And regardless of what you thought of Obama's qualifications back then, right now he is by definition the most qualified candidate. This election day he'll have something he didn't have in 2008 and Romney certainly won't have in 2012: four years in the saddle, and a couple of notches on his foreign policy gun belt.

It's going to be a close election, its too early to call, and we won't know for a few months yet what's likely to happen. But as a supporter of Obama, I must admit, he's loooking a lot better now than he did this time last year. Assuming the economy does not go into decline, and we don't have any military reverses overseas, Obama will be re-elected this November by a modest majority.

This judgement has nothing to do with ideology. It just adds up all the vectors and resolves all the forces as I see them right now. Also Sprach Elisee (cue majestic chords).