The world is full of examples of one nation possessing territory near the shores or even within the territory of other nations. The British possession of Gibraltar in Spain, the Spanish cities of Ceuta and Melilla on the Moroccon coast, the small French islands of St Pierre and Miquelon just off the coast of Newfoundland, Canada, and of course the US Guantanamo Bay in Cuba.

Typically though, civilized and democratic governments don't go to war with each other over such minor territorial disputes. But in this particular case, the ruling monarchy in Morocco may be very cleverly playing the role of poor little third-world Muslim victim to the big, bad European aggressor. A little manipulated nationalism never hurt a dictator's position. Plus he's got no fear at all of the USA because he's helping out against Al Queda. King Mohammed VI is no dummy.

Stratfor

Morocco Loses Island but Still Wins

On July 17 Spanish forces backed by Super Puma helicopters, F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets and five navy frigates removed six Moroccan soldiers who had occupied a tiny island claimed by both countries in the Strait of Gibraltar. The Moroccan soldiers did not resist arrest and were returned to their country the same day.

While the whole episode appears bizarre at first glance, it may actually have gone according to the Moroccan government's plan. Rabat obviously did not intend to hold the island with a mere six soldiers. Rather, its action was meant tweak the nose of the Spanish government -- which has clashed with Morocco over disputed territories, fishing rights and illegal immigration to Spain over the past few years -- and give a popularity boost to the regime of Moroccan King Mohammed VI.

Mohammed VI borrowed the idea from his late father, who sent troops to occupy Spanish Sahara in 1975 after escaping two coup attempts. His actions boosted nationalist sentiment in Morocco, and the current king may have planned a similar measure to boost his popularity and to counter opposition to his government's support for the United States.

Rabat's plan was simple, but the timing was key. The Moroccan government, a longtime U.S. ally, was very much in Washington's good graces after arresting several al Qaeda suspects allegedly planning to attack U.S. ships in the Strait of Gibraltar earlier in 2002. Mohammed likely felt he had enough political capital to ensure that Washington would stay out of the dispute.

The Moroccan government also had to choose a point where tensions between the Israelis and Palestinians and India and Pakistan were at no more than a dull roar. Rabat likely did not want to be accused of adding to the instability in the Middle East, and it likely wanted to monopolize the headlines.

So what's the next move for Rabat? Sending more troops to the island would be folly. Instead, the Moroccan government will press its disputes with Spain internationally in hopes of gaining some concessions and will exploit this issue at home.