<
--------------
STRATFOR.com
--------------
THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
If it’s in the news, it’s too late...
VENEZUELA: Chavez Secure for Now, but Threats Are Rising
July 25, 2002
Summary
After surviving an attempted coup in mid-April, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez likely will not face another military uprising in the near term. Chavez has neutralized his opponents in the armed forces and still has the support of slightly less than a third of the population. However, the economy's continued deterioration poses a much greater threat to Chavez's political survival.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez .
Image Credit: l'Agence France-Presse (AFP).
Analysis
Three months after a brief military rebellion nearly toppled his government, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has succeeded in neutralizing his opponents within the National Armed Forces (FAN). Meanwhile, the anti-Chavez civilian political opposition is disarticulated and in need of unifying charismatic leaders. As a result, Chavez is unlikely to be forcibly ousted from the presidency this year by another military coup.
With the traditional August summer holidays set to begin in less than a week, Venezuela also will not likely experience more large-scale street protests over the next four to eight weeks. However, the country's crisis is far from over. Political tensions have only slightly subsided, the economy's slowdown is just starting to be felt by the general population and the struggle to force Chavez's resignation now has moved from the country's streets and military garrisons to the Supreme Court and National Assembly.
Although Chavez has toned down his confrontational rhetoric and launched a charm offensive to improve his government's badly frayed relations with the Bush administration, he still faces multiple lawsuits before the Supreme Court seeking his impeachment based on accusations of corruption and mental instability. Moreover, Chavez's onetime key political ally -- former Interior and Justice Minister Luis Miquilena -- last week launched a new political organization called the Solidarity Party.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Venezuela: Chavez Secure for Now, but Threats Are Rising . . .