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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Iraqi Overthrow of Hussein Attractive for U.S., but Unrealistic
September 25, 2002
Summary
Washington is facing a dilemma about whether to depend on factions of the Iraqi army to rise up and overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. In the end the United States will launch a conventional war while using Iraqi opposition members as an auxiliary force, which likely will cause Iraqi citizens to rally around Hussein in defending their country from invasion.
Image Credit: l'Agence France-Presse.
Analysis
Former Iraqi Gen. Nizar al-Khazraji, the chief of staff in Baghdad during the Persian Gulf War and now in exile in Denmark, recently warned that a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq would spell a "very dark future for all," while saying that the Iraqi army is the best hope for bringing down Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, the BBC reports.
Washington would prefer for both military and political reasons that the Iraqis themselves overthrow Hussein. But, unsure about the success and consequences of such a scenario, the Bush administration instead will proceed with a conventional war-fighting strategy. Iraq's armed opposition will be used as an auxiliary force, while the possibility that the country's army will topple Hussein during the war will remain the best, but still uncertain, hope to finish the battle quickly.
However, an invasion by U.S. forces also is likely to cause many Iraqis to rally around Hussein, leaving no easy solution and a big, messy war ahead, with all of the U.S. might on one side and millions of Iraqis on the other.
If officials in the Iraqi army got rid of Hussein, it certainly would save Washington a lot of trouble, including serious military casualties. The Iraqi option would reap significant geopolitical benefits, too. Without the need for extensive U.S. air power or major deployments of U.S. forces, the backlash against Washington in the Muslim world would be avoided, and the U.S. relationship with its Arab allies would be preserved.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Iraqi Overthrow of Hussein Attractive for U.S., but Unrealistic . . .