* Wisconsin Project Roundtable

Moderators:
Gary Milhollin is director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, and an editor of IraqWatch.org.
Kelly Motz is an editor of IraqWatch.org.

Panelists:
* Stephen Black, chemical weapon inspector and the historian for the U.N. Special Commission (UNSCOM)
* Robert Gallucci, served as Deputy Executive Chairman of UNSCOM
* David Kay, led nuclear inspection teams in Iraq
* David Kelly, led biological inspection teams in Iraq, present advisor on Iraq issues to Britain's Ministry of Defense
* John Larrabee, led missile inspections in Iraq, a specialist on ballistic missile technology
* Gordon Oehler, headed the C.I.A.'s Non-Proliferation Center (1992 - 1997), responsible for the U.S. intelligence community's support to the U.N. inspectors
June, 2002

* Why Iraq Will Defeat Arms Inspectors
By Gary Milhollin & Kelly Motz
The New York Times
September 16, 2002

* Iraq: The Snare of Inspections (4 page text .PDF File)
By Gary Milhollin & Kelly Motz
Commentary: October 2002

Iraq remains a sealed compound. The bottom line is, we know the boss, and we wanna know how far along he is in his personal bend on genocide -- and who his current targets are. It is verified that:

* Hussein holds in his arsenal bio/chem weaponry capable of killing, injuring, and permanently maiming thousands
* Hussein’s personal reach (missiles) is well beyond his borders
* Hussein has recently threatened an open attack on Israel**
* Hussein has contacts with the active international terrorism community

** in direct reply to the U.S. demand that Iraq get back on track with the agreed-upon U.N. resolutions, or face the wrath of U.S. military might

The Present Chemical Situation
After UNSCOM inspectors left Iraq in December 1998, U.S.-led forces bombed many sites believed to be chemical weapon plants. Since then, reports have emerged that Iraq has rebuilt many of those sites, and that the sites appear to be operating. It is reasonable to infer that Iraq has resumed its production of chemical weapons, and is adding new elements to the portion of its previous stockpile that has never been accounted for.

The Present Biological Situation
Iraq has been found to have, or has admitted to have, stockpiled:

* Aflatoxin
* Anthrax spores
* Botulinum toxin
* Cholera
* Clostridium perfringens (gas gangrene)
* Mycotoxins
* Ricin
* Shigella
* Wheat-cover smut
* Camelpox
* Enterovirus 70
* Infectious hemorrhagic conjunctivitis virus
* Rotavirus
* Smallpox

Genetic engineering uses basic knowledge of DNA molecules to manipulate genetic characteristics. A U.S. government study concluded that genetic engineering is unlikely to produce "supergerms" that are significantly more lethal than existing germ agents, but also concluded that such engineering might enhance weaponization by creating strains that are more stable during dissemination and less susceptible to standard treatments. Iraq admits it had a genetic engineering research program, one purpose of which was producing an antibiotic-resistant strain of anthrax, but any advances Iraq made are not known.

The Present Biological Situation
U.N. inspectors have learned that Iraq's first bomb design, which weighed a ton and was a full meter in diameter, was replaced by a smaller, more efficient model. From discussions with the Iraqis, the inspectors have deduced that the new design weighs only about 600 kilograms and measures only 600 to 650 millimeters in diameter. That makes it small enough to fit on Iraq's Scud-type missiles, some of which are still unaccounted for. Iraq has mastered the key technique of creating an implosive shock wave, which squeezes a bomb's nuclear material enough to trigger a chain reaction. The new Iraqi design also uses a "flying tamper," a refinement that "hammers" the nuclear material to squeeze it even harder, so that bombs can be made smaller without diminishing their explosive force. The inspectors have determined that Iraq now has a successful bomb design and lacks only the material to fuel it.

The Present Missile Situation
According to the Rumsfeld Commission, a group of US experts tasked to assess the ballistic missile threat to the United States, "Iraq has maintained the skills and industrial capabilities needed to reconstitute its long-range ballistic missile program. . . Iraq has actively continued work on short-range (under 150km) liquid- and solid-fueled missiles, programs allowed by the UN Resolutions. Once UN-imposed controls are lifted, Iraq could mount a determined effort to acquire needed plant and equipment, whether directly or indirectly. . . Iraq could develop a shorter range, covert, ship-launched missile threat that could threaten the United States in a very short time."

Arms specialists estimate that Iraq could reconstitute its long-range ballistic missile production line within a year of a decision to do so, based on retained know-how and production capacity and on its ability to import components. Iraq has also shown a keen interest in developing or acquiring cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. While it is difficult to know the true extent of Iraq's missile programs without inspectors present, it is clear that Iraq has consistently employed its resources and ingenuity to produce missiles from whatever means were available. There can be little doubt that it will continue to do so.

Call me a parrot if you will. All the data in this post were garnered from http://iraqwatch.org/. It's a pretty thorough site.

Any additional classified information would naturally remain classified,
Dan